What’s the Impact of the Summit of the Americas Delay?

Q. The Dominican Republic’s government announced on Nov. citing “deep differences of opinion” amid tensions follow- ing recent U.S. military strikes on vessels in the Caribbean and along the Pacific coast. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, host of CELAC and COP30 in Belém this month, earlier this month criticized the U.S. military’s presence in the Caribbean and argued that hemispheric challenges should be addressed through diplomacy rather than force. What explains the reasons behind the postponement of the Summit of the Americas? What do Lula’s comments signal about the future of regional cooperation, and does the region appear to be moving toward greater unity or deeper fragmentation? How might China react to this moment ahead of the next CELAC-China forum scheduled for 2028?

A. Dan Restrepo, founding partner at Dinámica Americas: “De- oldest international organization, unity has long eluded the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. Neither trien- nial meetings with the president of the United States, that is, Summits of the Americas, nor annual gatherings of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States have overcome vast differences to forge meaning- ful, common agendas. Given track records of failure, the utility of such forums has been diminishing for some time, a trend unlikely to reverse any time soon. Complicating matters further for the now-postponed 2025 Summit of the Americas, U.S. President Donald Trump has demonstrated deep disdain for multilateral forums, preferring instead a transactional, bilateral approach to international relations. With a few notable exceptions, Brazil’s President Lula being one, leaders throughout the hemisphere have recognized this and acquiesced to dealing with the United States one-on-one, leaving aside issues of regional concern. This is especially true given Trump’s willingness to use the full range of U.S. power to cajole and coerce countries to advance current interests, regardless of long-term consequences. As a result, the United States has become an additional agent of fragmentation. China’s interaction with countries throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, including through the next CELAC-China forum, is unlikely to serve as a catalyst of hemispheric unity. China too seeks to advance its interests—primarily commercial ones—transactionally, and leaders throughout the hemisphere, of all ideological stripes, have played along even as skepticism toward China rises in many corners of the region.”

A. Laura Carlsen, director of the City: “The suspension of the Summit of the Americas is the latest and clearest example of the reac- tion against the Trump administration’s active intervention to divide and conquer a region with a mind of its own. The United States established the summit in 1994 to build consensus around its strategies and, since then, it has always been a mirror for differences on key regional issues like the economic model, integration, left-right rifts and hegemonic ambitions. Now the Trump administration has gone beyond reflections to smash the mirror. The host, the Dominican Republic, cited ‘profound divergences that currently hinder productive dialogue in the Americas.’ Mexico and Colombia refused to attend. The United States has not only excluded Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, but Venezuelan boats are under violent at- tack by U.S. armed forces in the Caribbean, and the Cuban people are being strangled by U.S. sanctions. The illegal attacks in the Caribbean and Pacific, considered ‘extraju- dicial executions’ by human rights experts under international law, have outraged and distanced many leaders, not only in Latin America. The ignominious death of the Sum- mit of the Americas may not be the worst outcome of the U.S. chaos strategy. Much more is at stake. The United States also undermined the recent meeting between the European Union and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), a forum established for regional coordination without the presence of the hegemon, by dis- suading Latin American and European Union leaders from attending (including prominent pushover, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, who canceled at the last minute). Only nine heads of states attended, and the CELAC nations ruled by the far-right ‘disassociated’ from signifi- cant articles in the final declaration. Trump dislikes multilateralism, but the strategy to torpedo all basis for common interests bodes ill for the entire region—including the United States.”

A. Arturo Sarukhan, former Mexican ambassador to the United States: “The decision to postpone the summit reflects a pragmatic Dominican acknowledgment of hemispheric realities, most likely driven by an effort to ensure a high-participation forum under more stable regional and geopolitical conditions than those prevalent today. Citing ‘profound divergences that currently hinder productive dialogue in the Americas,’ it chose delay over dysfunction —a choice that should deserve measured respect. The postponement undoubtedly reveals deep fractures in Inter-American affairs: the militarization of the fight against transnational criminal organizations and the patently unlawful—under both international and U.S. legal norms—use of force; the re- suscitation of what to many Latin American spheres-of-influence policy emanating from the White House; and sharp divisions made worse by nations providing succor to author- itarian regimes or resorting to Westphalian notions of national sovereignty solely when expedient, weaponizing asylum policy (as Mexico has done with Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia) based on purely ideological consid- erations. Liberal democratic norms need to be at the core of inter-American summitry; if not, the Inter-American Democratic Charter, born out of the 2001 summit and which the majority of the continent signed, is not worth the paper it’s written on. To top it off, Latin America is gazing at its navel: the lack of bandwidth and appetite for collective en- gagement and foreign affairs means not only that the region is punching below its weight diplomatically, but it’s not even getting up on the ring. Just witness the paltry participa- tion in the most recent E.U.-CELAC summit, and add to that mix signals suggesting President Trump was unwilling to commit to attending. Holding a fractured summit where major leaders shun the proceedings would have been worse than postponement. Ultimately, the Dominicans made the best of an impossible situation. The question now isn’t whether postponement was correct—it clearly was—but whether leaders can over- come their divisions to make a 2026 summit meaningful.” international policy at Cen-

A. Alexander Main, director of ter for Economic and Policy Research: “The cancellation of this year’s Summit of the Americas is the symptom of a bigger headache for the region: the Trump administration’s aggressive effort to impose its will throughout the hemisphere, without regard for international law, national sovereignty or basic morals. U.S. sanctions, coercive tariffs and threats of all kinds have been deployed to further Trump’s agenda. Now, as part of its war on so-called ‘narco-terror,’ the administration is militarizing the Caribbean on a scale unseen since the Cold War, and airstrikes have illegally blown to pieces dozens of civilians Rebecca Bill Chavez, Ph.D., President & CEO in alleged drug-running boats. Even more Lila Abed, Director, Mexico Program worryingly, the White House is considering Alfonso Blanco, Director, Energy Transition & Climate Program attacking Venezuela based on the spurious Margaret Myers, Senior Advisor, Asia & Latin America Program allegation that Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro controls a major transnational drug cartel. Manuel Orozco, Director, Migration, Remittances and Development Program Colombia could be next on the list following Bruna Santos, Director, Brazil Program unsubstantiated administration claims that Peter Hakim, President Emeritus President Petro supports drug trafficking. Needless to say, Trump’s unjustified and unhinged military campaign has generated much concern regionally, particularly among Latin America Advisor is published every business day, except for major U.S. holidays, by the Inter-American Dialogue at 1155 15th Street NW, Suite 800 Washington, DC 20005 www.thedialogue.org Caribbean countries who proudly refer to their region as a ‘zone of peace.’ It became obvious to the Dominican Republic and other countries that it would be impossible to hold a smooth, productive hemispheric summit in such a distressing context. Ironically, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a long-time champion of the Summits of the Americas, is the chief promoter of the United States’ escalating military operations. A further The opinions expressed by the members of the Board of Advisors and by guest commentators do not necessarily represent those of the Inter-American Dialogue. The analy- sis is the sole view of each commentator and does not nec- essarily represent the views of their respective employers or firms. The information in this report has been obtained from reliable sources, but neither its accuracy and completeness, nor the opinions based thereon, are guaranteed. If you have any questions relating to the contents of this publication, contact the editorial offices of the Inter-American Dialogue. Contents of this report may not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted without prior written permission from the Inter-American Dialogue. irony is that Trump and Rubio’s uber-inter- ventionist policies will surely convince more regional governments to deepen relations with a far more stable and reliable foreign power: the People’s Republic of China.”

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