What Factors Will Decide Honduras’ Upcoming Election?

Hondurans go to the polls later this month to decide who will be the country’s next president and who will represent them in Congress.

Q: Hondurans will head to the polls on Nov. 30 in a single-round gress and local officials. The race pits ruling party candidate Rixi Moncada, a close ally of President Xiomara Castro, against opposition contenders Salvador Nasralla and Nasry “Tito” Asfura. What factors are driving voter sentiment in this race, and which candidate is best positioned ahead of the vote? What is the risk that the elections yield contested results? What might the outcome mean for Honduras’ ties with Washington and Beijing?

A: Emily Mendrala, senior advisor at Dinámica Americas: “Hondurans round the corner into election day focused on the economy, crime and corruption. At this stage, it is hard to pre- dict the outcome. Recent polls vary widely, and turnout could be high, driven partly by church-organized civic engagement campaigns. March primaries were marred by electoral disagreements and incon- sistencies within the national electoral council, and analysts warn that similar issues in November could trigger fraud accusations and post-elec- tion unrest. Tensions are already running high, with accusations by the opposition that the government is intimidating the national electoral council and otherwise seeking to tilt the field in its favor. China policy is, in some respects, on the ballot. Nasralla has pledged to restore diplo- matic ties with Taiwan, abandoning Honduras’ 2023 switch to Beijing. He delivered this message directly to U.S. officials in recent months. China’s engagement has disappointed many Hondurans, particularly in the shrimp and retail industries where Honduran companies have faced new sources of competition or lost market access in Taiwan. However, another diplomatic pivot could create short-term economic instability. For the U.S. government, migration coopera- tion will likely remain the Trump administra- tion’s primary focus, and all three candidates appear willing to maintain existing arrange- ments. However, Moncada’s continuation of Castro’s closer ties to Cuba and Venezuela could create friction, particularly with a State Department led by Secretary Marco Rubio, a vocal critic of both countries. Nasralla and Asfura would likely pursue warmer relations with Washington.” Department of Political Science

A: Christine J. Wade, chair of the at Washington College in Ches- tertown, Md.:

“The chief issue for Honduran voters in 2025 is the economy. Persistent poverty and inequality, a large informal sector and a growing reliance on remittances all reflect serious structural issues with the economy. Castro’s social programs have been popular, but they don’t come close to meeting the population’s real needs. While remittances offset inflation for some consumers, foreign investment is low, and unemployment has increased in recent years. Security and corruption also concern voters. While the security situation has im- proved since 2022, Honduras’ homicide rate remains the highest in Central America. Drug trafficking organizations and gangs continue to operate throughout the country. Violence against women and extortion remain appall- ingly high. There’s not much enthusiasm for any of the three candidates, two of whom have run before. A significant number of vot- ers are presently uncommitted, which makes polling challenging. Libre’s Rixi Moncada, the current defense minister and front-runner in some polls, has the highest favorability ratings among the three candidates, though Libre’s failure to tackle corruption (including within Castro’s own administration) could erode votes. Voters are rightly skeptical about whether any of the three candidates offer real solutions to Honduras’ most press- ing problems. They’re also worried about election fraud. Illicit campaign financing and election fraud have marred several recent elections and resulted in post-election vio- lence. The release of recordings plotting an electoral coup to prevent a Moncada victory, tight polls and close margins on election day may feed allegations of fraud, though a new transmission system should help to secure election results.”

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